Global migratory flows are evolving in scale and complexity. Europe’s external borders are experiencing growing pressures because of the convergence of multiple geopolitical crises. Last year, the numbers of migrants attempting to reach Europe rose above pre-pandemic levels. The nature of migration flows is becoming more complex. Although the Mediterranean remains the primary route, migrants are increasingly moving through the Western Balkans as well as land borders in Central and Eastern Europe.
As push factors overlap, a single term can no longer define individuals on the move. The impact of the war in Ukraine — especially pressure on cereal availability in the Middle East and North Africa — could lead to a higher migrant movement toward Europe.
Efforts to reach an EU agreement on sharing the burden of processing migrants across the bloc might prove inadequate should numbers rise significantly, triggering divisions between member states. The plethora of evolving variables that shape migration pose several important and immediate questions about the risks and opportunities facing migrants, the regions and countries they move through, and the future of international protection